⸻ Northern Ex-Lawmakers Divided Over Tinubu’s 2027 Re‑Election Bid

Former federal lawmakers from northern Nigeria are sharply split over President Bola Tinubu’s intentions to run for a second term in 2027, with tensions emerging following a high‑level meeting at the presidency.

🔍 What Happened

1. The meeting between Tinubu and northern former lawmakers revealed a clear divide: some backed his re‑election campaign, while others criticized his first term performance and opposed any continuation in office .
2. Dissenting voices faulted his administration’s handling of security, economy, and regional development, particularly in the North. Supporters argued that continuity was key to sustaining progress in national rebuilding .

🧭 Why the Split Matters

1. Regional Balance and Political Strategy
   
2. The divide signifies broader tensions within the ruling APC over regional representation. It underscores concerns among northern politicians about Tinubu’s perceived neglect of the region .
3. Tinubu’s Political Capital at Stake
   
4. A united northern bloc could offer strong electoral support. But public splits among respected former lawmakers could damage Tinubu’s appeal in the heartland.
5. Setting the 2027 Tone
   
6. These early disagreements may frame the emergent political realignments ahead of 2027. Tinubu will need to consolidate key regional leaders to shore up his candidacy.

📌 Looking Ahead

1. Will northern APC leaders rally behind Tinubu or formalize their opposition?
2. Can the president address criticism and regain confidence in the North?
3. Could these divisions influence alliances and candidate selections in the run‑up to 2027?

Bottom Line: The split among northern ex‑legislators over Tinubu’s re‑election stems from divergent views on his performance and the direction of regional politics. The outcome could reshape political loyalties in Nigeria’s next general election.

The Meeting that Exposed the Divide

A recent dialogue session held at the presidency in Abuja brought simmering tensions into the open: former federal legislators from the North remain sharply divided over President Bola Tinubu’s plan to seek a second term in 2027. While a faction endorsed the move, others voiced frustration over Tinubu’s first‑term record, particularly on security and economic issues .

Who’s Backing Tinubu—and Why

Femi Gbajabiamila, the presidential Chief of Staff and former Speaker, delivered a strong appeal to former northern legislators, urging them to “allow him to finish what he started.” He framed Tinubu as a national leader whose projects in infrastructure and agriculture are already benefiting the North .

A communiqué from the Northern Caucus—co‑signed by coordinator Rufai Chanchangi and secretary Atiwurcha Albert—formally endorsed Tinubu’s re‑election, arguing that rotational power agreements should be respected and that continuity guarantees stability .

Who’s Skeptical—and Why

Opposition among ex‑lawmakers seems to stem from dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s performance. Critics cite lingering insecurity in states like Zamfara, Katsina, and Plateau, alongside concerns that the North has not received adequate attention despite rhetorical commitments . While fewer names are publicly identified, the punch‑report notes a clear division exists—showing deep unease with re‑election at this stage.

📌 Regional Politics at Play

Faction	Position	Key Arguments
Pro‑Tinubu	Supports 2027 re‑election	Emphasizes unity, continuity, and benefits from infrastructure and agricultural development
Sceptical Voices	Opposes or hesitates	Cites poor handling of security, unmet promises, and concerns over true regional equity

What It Means for 2027 and Beyond

1. Influence on Regional APC Alignments
   
2. The stance of northern leaders—traditional bellwethers in national politics—could significantly shape APC support ahead of 2027 elections.
3. Populist Perception vs. Institutional Endorsement
   
4. While endorsements from former lawmakers and Chief of Staff lend institutional weight, there’s a growing gap between this and what grassroots northern voters may feel.
5. Leadership Credibility
   
6. Critics are doubling down on calls for accountability and performance, especially in the ongoing fight against insecurity across key northern states.

🧠 Bottom Line

Tunibu’s re‑election path is currently supported by institutional figures such as Gbajabiamila and parts of the Northern Caucus, but key former lawmakers remain unconvinced. Their opposition highlights real concerns about governance and equity in northern Nigeria. Going forward, Tinubu will likely need to address these criticisms head-on if he hopes to unify the North ahead of 2027.

🔍 Who’s On Which Side – Leadership Positions & Context

🏛️ Pro–Tinubu Faction

1. Femi Gbajabiamila, the Presidential Chief of Staff and former Speaker of the House, led a dialogue session hosted by the Northern Caucus of the National Forum of Former Legislators in Abuja. He urged northern political figures to support Tinubu’s second-term bid, citing “continuity, unity, and political agreements” and highlighting infrastructure and agricultural development across the North .
2. Communiqué backers include the Northern Caucus leadership, with messages signed by Rufai Chanchangi (Coordinator) and Atiwurcha Albert (Secretary), affirming their backing for the Southern presidency and Tinubu completing the current tenure .

🛑 Opposing or Unsure Faction

1. While most opposition voices remain unnamed in press coverage, Punch NG confirms significant dissent among former northern legislators. Their criticisms focus on Tinubu’s poor handling of insecurity in states like Zamfara and Katsina, and perceived marginalization of the North under his leadership .
2. Separately, broader northern civic and community groups (including traditional and political actors) have rejected Tinubu’s re‑election bid, citing abysmal performance and broken promises, contrasting with pro‑Tinubu endorsements from groups like Afenifere in the South .

🧭 Summary Table of Positions

Group/Individuals	Position on Tinubu 2027 Bid	Key Arguments
Gbajabiamila & Northern Caucus leaders	Pro‑Tinubu	Advocates continuity, infrastructure expansion, unity and power rotation
Other unnamed ex‑lawmakers (northern)	Skeptical or opposed	Highlights insecurity, unmet expectations, and poor regional equity
Civic/northern community groups	Publicly against the bid	Criticizes performance; rejects re‑election before addressing core issues

🤝 What’s at Stake

1. APC’s Northern Outlook – The depth of support or opposition among former lawmakers could shape northern APC endorsements and influence internal candidate selection ahead of the 2027 polls.
2. Perception vs. Messaging – While institutional leaders project unity, grassroots frustrations point to a disconnect between political narratives and lived realities in the North.
3. Policy Implications – Even supporters call for more action on regional insecurity, demanding tangible results in states like Benue, Niger, Plateaux, and others .

🧠 Final Take

Tinubu’s re‑election is gaining institutional support from figures like Gbajabiamila and the northern caucus of former legislators. However, substantial unease persists among other former lawmakers and northern civic organizations, focused on governance shortcomings and regional equity deficits. If Tinubu hopes to secure wholehearted northern backing in 2027, his administration will need to directly address these divisions and deliver on promises, especially concerning security and development in the North.