🗳️ PDP in Turmoil: Split Between Jonathan and Obi for 2027 Candidacy?

In the run-up to the 2027 Nigerian general election, internal debates within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have sharply intensified over who should represent the party—former President Goodluck Jonathan or Labour Party’s Peter Obi are at the centre of a brewing split. 

⚖️ Northern Alignment: Jonathan Favored Over Obi

A senior PDP chieftain, Umar Sani, stated on Trust TV that the North would rather back Goodluck Jonathan, arguing that his single four-year term ensures completion of the South’s allotted eight years, consistent with the country’s zoning principle. In contrast, Peter Obi’s presidency would be based solely on personal promise—which lacks legal compulsion to conclude after four years. 

🔄 Overtures and Coalition Tensions

Inside PDP, considerable pressure has been exerted on Obi to return to the party:

1. Meetings led by Peter Obi and Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed involved senior PDP stakeholders, including Atiku Abubakar, urging Obi to rejoin and unify opposition forces.  
2. The PDP Governors Forum, led by Bala Mohammed, strongly denied rumours of endorsing any El-Rufai–Obi ticket, reiterating that governors would support whoever wins the formal PDP primary.  

🏛️ Internal Divides and Strategic Imperatives

Broader political context complicates the debate:

1. Presidential ambition clashes among opposition figures—Atiku, Obi, Amaechi—have stalled coalition decisions, including whether to adopt the ADC or register another platform.  
2. Analysts warn that personal ambition must give way to unity, or the coalition risks collapsing.  

📊 Summary of Positions

Actor / Group	Position on Jonathan vs Obi
Umar Sani (PDP Chieftain)	Prefers Jonathan ensures Souths term ends by law
Bala Mohammed (PDP Govs)	Open to Obi returning, but deny backing Obi prematurely
Obi’s camp	Cautiously watching, no decision yet on rejoining PDP

🔍 Why This Matters

1. Zoning remains central: Northern leaders want statistical assurance that if Obi wins, South’s tenure concludes as expected—but legally guaranteed under Jonathan.
2. Coalition dynamics: PDP’s internal divisions are mirrored in broader coalition talks, further delaying clear alignment ahead of 2027.
3. Party identity vs pragmatism: PDP strategists are torn between preserving the party’s identity and reconciling with Obi’s mass appeal to restore political relevance.

📌 Final Word

The debate between Jonathan and Obi underscores a deeper fracture in PDP strategy: should the party rely on a safe, legally constrained veteran, or gamble on the populist appeal of Obi? For now, the answer remains undecided—PDP leaders, party organs, and the broader coalition movement must balance ambition with unity as Nigeria approaches a pivotal electoral moment.